The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on January 10, 2025, provided crucial updates on global agricultural markets. Below is an analysis of the key markets: wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, and rice.
1. Wheat
- Global Production: Global wheat production was revised downward to 793 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons due to lower-than-expected yields in the EU and other regions. This marks a notable supply reduction compared to earlier forecasts.
- Consumption: Forecasted at 802.5 million tons, leading to a continued drawdown of stocks.
- Ending Stocks: Reduced to 258 million tons, the lowest since 2016/17, indicating tight global supply and supporting higher prices.
2. Corn
- Global Production: Estimated at 1,218 million tons, representing a slight decrease (0.8%) from the previous year due to declines in production in Ukraine (-18%), Russia (-21%), and the EU (-6%).
- Demand: Consumption is projected at 1,238 million tons, growing by 1.6% due to increased usage in China and India.
- Ending Stocks: Estimated at 296 million tons, similar to levels observed in 2020/21. Stock-to-use ratios suggest continued tightness in supply.
3. Soybeans
- US Production: Revised downward to 4,366 million bushels (previous: 4,561 million bushels), attributed to lower yields in states like Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio.
- Global Production:
- Argentina: Maintains a forecast of 52 million tons despite ongoing weather challenges.
- Brazil: Unchanged at 169 million tons, potentially achieving a record-high harvest.
- Ending Stocks: Global soybean stocks were adjusted downward to 128.37 million tons (December forecast: 131.87 million tons).
4. Soybean Meal
- US Prices: Increased by $10 to $310 per short ton, reflecting higher feed demand and tighter supplies.
- Global Trade: Remains robust, driven by growing demand in Asia for animal feed, particularly in China.
5. Soybean Oil
- US Prices: Stable at 43 cents per pound.
- Demand Dynamics:
- Domestic biofuel demand remains strong.
- Export outlook remains steady, supported by consistent international interest, particularly from Asia.
6. Oats
- Production: No significant revisions were made in the January report. US production remains aligned with previous estimates.
- Consumption: Demand is stable, with modest growth in food and feed sectors.
- Stocks: Projected to remain at healthy levels, keeping oat prices range-bound.
7. Rice
- Global Production: Estimated at 508 million tons, largely unchanged from the prior forecast, with strong contributions from Asian producers like India and Vietnam.
- US Production: Slightly revised downward due to weather impacts in the southern states.
- Exports: Global trade is projected to rise slightly due to increased demand from Africa and the Middle East.
Market Implications
The January 2025 WASDE report highlights tightening supplies in key markets such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. While soybean oil prices remain stable, soybean meal and grain markets could see upward price pressure due to reduced stock levels and increased demand. Oats and rice remain relatively stable, with no significant changes in supply-demand dynamics.
