The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the USDA on February 11, 2025, provides updated insights into global agricultural markets. Here's a summary of key points:
Wheat:
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U.S. Outlook: Domestic use increased slightly, leading to a reduction in ending stocks by 4 million bushels to 794 million. Despite this decrease, ending stocks remain 14% higher than the previous year. The season-average farm price is steady at $5.55 per bushel.
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Global Outlook: Global wheat supplies rose by 0.6 million tons to 1,061.3 million, primarily due to increased production in Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Consumption also saw a slight uptick, while trade projections decreased, notably with China's imports reduced by 2 million tons to 11 million. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million, mainly due to reductions in China.
Coarse Grains (Corn):
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U.S. Outlook: No changes were made to the U.S. corn supply and use projections. However, the season-average farm price was raised by $0.10 to $4.35 per bushel.
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Global Outlook: Global coarse grain production is forecasted to decrease by 1.8 million tons to 1,492 billion. This decline is attributed to reduced corn production in Argentina and Brazil. Argentina's production was lowered due to heat and dryness affecting yields, while Brazil's reduction is linked to delayed second-crop planting in the Center-West region. Consequently, global corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 3 million tons to 290.3 million.
Rice:
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U.S. Outlook: Slight increases in supplies and domestic use were noted, while exports decreased. Ending stocks rose by 3.5 million cwt to 47 million, marking the highest level in a decade. The all rice season-average farm price was adjusted down by $0.20 to $15.40 per cwt.
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Global Outlook: Global rice supplies decreased marginally by 0.2 million tons to 712.2 million, mainly due to reduced production in Sri Lanka. Consumption increased slightly, and trade reached a record 58.3 million tons, driven by higher exports from India. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 0.5 million tons to 181.6 million, with notable reductions in India and Sri Lanka.
Oilseeds (Soybeans):
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U.S. Outlook: No changes were made to the U.S. soybean supply and use projections.
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Global Outlook: Argentina's soybean production was reduced by 3 million metric tons to 49 million, reflecting adverse weather conditions. Brazil's production estimate remained unchanged at 169 million metric tons. Global ending stocks declined by 4 million metric tons to 124 million, falling below pre-report expectations.
Market Reactions:
The report was viewed as neutral for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Market participants are focusing on South American production conditions, crop insurance price discovery, potential tariff disruptions, and the upcoming March Prospective Plantings Report.
In summary, the February 2025 WASDE report indicates minor adjustments in U.S. agricultural projections, with more significant changes in global estimates, particularly concerning South American crop production.
