Why does the platinum future performs not as good as the gold future? It seems, it has lost its correlation.

The platinum future has often underperformed compared to gold due to several factors:

1. Industrial Demand vs. Safe-Haven Asset

• Gold is a safe-haven asset, rising in uncertain times.

• Platinum depends on industrial demand (e.g., automotive, jewelry), which drops in weak economies.

2. Substitution by Palladium

• Used in catalytic converters, but increasingly replaced by palladium (cheaper, more efficient).

• This reduces platinum’s industrial demand.

3. Supply & Production

• Mined mainly in South Africa & Russia; supply issues can affect prices.

• Gold has a broader mining network and steady central bank demand.

4. Speculative Demand & ETFs

• Gold attracts central banks & ETFs; platinum has lower investor interest.

Conclusion:

Gold thrives in uncertainty and crisis, while platinum relies on industrial use and faces substitution.

Classic COT Report

• Structure:
  • Commercials (hedgers, large corporations)
  • Non-Commercials (large speculators like hedge funds)
  • Non-Reportables (small traders)
• Pros: Good for long-term trends since commercials often trade against the market while large speculators reinforce trends.
• Cons: Uses an older classification, making it less precise for some markets.

Aggregated COT Report

• New classification:
  • More detailed trader categories (e.g., Swap Dealers, Managed Money, Producers)
• Pros: Provides a clearer market structure, especially for financial futures like currencies and stock indices.
• Cons: More complex to analyze and less useful for some commodity markets.

Which One to Use?

• Currencies, stock indices, bonds: Aggregated data is better since it separates institutional traders more precisely.
• Commodities (gold, oil, corn): Classic COT is often more relevant as it focuses on key players like commercials and speculators.
• Long-term trend analysis: Classic COT (commercials as a contrarian signal).
• Short-term trading & sentiment analysis: Aggregated COT (better insight into hedge funds & institutions).

For intraday or swing trading, the Aggregated COT might be more useful. If you focus on macro trends, the Classic COT is likely better.

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the USDA on February 11, 2025, provides updated insights into global agricultural markets. Here's a summary of key points:

Wheat:

• U.S. Outlook: Domestic use increased slightly, leading to a reduction in ending stocks by 4 million bushels to 794 million. Despite this decrease, ending stocks remain 14% higher than the previous year. The season-average farm price is steady at $5.55 per bushel.

• Global Outlook: Global wheat supplies rose by 0.6 million tons to 1,061.3 million, primarily due to increased production in Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Consumption also saw a slight uptick, while trade projections decreased, notably with China's imports reduced by 2 million tons to 11 million. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million, mainly due to reductions in China.

Coarse Grains (Corn):

• U.S. Outlook: No changes were made to the U.S. corn supply and use projections. However, the season-average farm price was raised by $0.10 to $4.35 per bushel.

• Global Outlook: Global coarse grain production is forecasted to decrease by 1.8 million tons to 1,492 billion. This decline is attributed to reduced corn production in Argentina and Brazil. Argentina's production was lowered due to heat and dryness affecting yields, while Brazil's reduction is linked to delayed second-crop planting in the Center-West region. Consequently, global corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 3 million tons to 290.3 million.

Rice:

• U.S. Outlook: Slight increases in supplies and domestic use were noted, while exports decreased. Ending stocks rose by 3.5 million cwt to 47 million, marking the highest level in a decade. The all rice season-average farm price was adjusted down by $0.20 to $15.40 per cwt.

• Global Outlook: Global rice supplies decreased marginally by 0.2 million tons to 712.2 million, mainly due to reduced production in Sri Lanka. Consumption increased slightly, and trade reached a record 58.3 million tons, driven by higher exports from India. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 0.5 million tons to 181.6 million, with notable reductions in India and Sri Lanka.

Oilseeds (Soybeans):

• U.S. Outlook: No changes were made to the U.S. soybean supply and use projections.

• Global Outlook: Argentina's soybean production was reduced by 3 million metric tons to 49 million, reflecting adverse weather conditions. Brazil's production estimate remained unchanged at 169 million metric tons. Global ending stocks declined by 4 million metric tons to 124 million, falling below pre-report expectations.

Market Reactions:

The report was viewed as neutral for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Market participants are focusing on South American production conditions, crop insurance price discovery, potential tariff disruptions, and the upcoming March Prospective Plantings Report.

In summary, the February 2025 WASDE report indicates minor adjustments in U.S. agricultural projections, with more significant changes in global estimates, particularly concerning South American crop production.