2025-01-10: Analysis of the WASDE Report (January 10, 2025)

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on January 10, 2025, provided crucial updates on global agricultural markets. Below is an analysis of the key markets: wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, oats, and rice.

1. Wheat

  • Global Production: Global wheat production was revised downward to 793 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons due to lower-than-expected yields in the EU and other regions. This marks a notable supply reduction compared to earlier forecasts.
  • Consumption: Forecasted at 802.5 million tons, leading to a continued drawdown of stocks.
  • Ending Stocks: Reduced to 258 million tons, the lowest since 2016/17, indicating tight global supply and supporting higher prices.

2. Corn

  • Global Production: Estimated at 1,218 million tons, representing a slight decrease (0.8%) from the previous year due to declines in production in Ukraine (-18%), Russia (-21%), and the EU (-6%).
  • Demand: Consumption is projected at 1,238 million tons, growing by 1.6% due to increased usage in China and India.
  • Ending Stocks: Estimated at 296 million tons, similar to levels observed in 2020/21. Stock-to-use ratios suggest continued tightness in supply.

3. Soybeans

  • US Production: Revised downward to 4,366 million bushels (previous: 4,561 million bushels), attributed to lower yields in states like Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio.
  • Global Production:
    • Argentina: Maintains a forecast of 52 million tons despite ongoing weather challenges.
    • Brazil: Unchanged at 169 million tons, potentially achieving a record-high harvest.
  • Ending Stocks: Global soybean stocks were adjusted downward to 128.37 million tons (December forecast: 131.87 million tons).

4. Soybean Meal

  • US Prices: Increased by $10 to $310 per short ton, reflecting higher feed demand and tighter supplies.
  • Global Trade: Remains robust, driven by growing demand in Asia for animal feed, particularly in China.

5. Soybean Oil

  • US Prices: Stable at 43 cents per pound.
  • Demand Dynamics:
    • Domestic biofuel demand remains strong.
    • Export outlook remains steady, supported by consistent international interest, particularly from Asia.

6. Oats

  • Production: No significant revisions were made in the January report. US production remains aligned with previous estimates.
  • Consumption: Demand is stable, with modest growth in food and feed sectors.
  • Stocks: Projected to remain at healthy levels, keeping oat prices range-bound.

7. Rice

  • Global Production: Estimated at 508 million tons, largely unchanged from the prior forecast, with strong contributions from Asian producers like India and Vietnam.
  • US Production: Slightly revised downward due to weather impacts in the southern states.
  • Exports: Global trade is projected to rise slightly due to increased demand from Africa and the Middle East.

Market Implications

The January 2025 WASDE report highlights tightening supplies in key markets such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. While soybean oil prices remain stable, soybean meal and grain markets could see upward price pressure due to reduced stock levels and increased demand. Oats and rice remain relatively stable, with no significant changes in supply-demand dynamics.

2024-12-22 Cumulative Delta / Two Methods

When using Cumulative Delta from Rithmic in MultiCharts.net, choosing between "Ask Traded vs Bid Traded" and "Up Tick vs Down Tick" depends on the type of analysis you're looking to perform and the level of market detail you need. Here's a breakdown of both options to help you decide:

1. Ask Traded vs Bid Traded:

  • What It Represents:

    • This method shows the cumulative difference between the volume of contracts traded at the ask price (buyers willing to pay) versus those traded at the bid price (sellers willing to accept).
    • Ask Traded indicates buying pressure (market participants who are willing to buy at the asking price).
    • Bid Traded indicates selling pressure (market participants who are willing to sell at the bid price).
  • When to Use:

    • Best for analyzing market depth and order flow since it reflects real-time activity based on the bid/ask spread.
    • This method allows for a more accurate view of whether aggressive buyers or sellers are in control, making it more suitable for short-term trading and precise order flow analysis (such as scalping or intraday trading).
    • Ideal for gauging market sentiment and immediate directional moves based on who is dominating the price action (buyers vs. sellers).

2. Up Tick vs Down Tick:

  • What It Represents:

    • This method uses ticks to track price movements. An up tick occurs when the market moves to a higher price level than the previous trade, and a down tick happens when the market moves to a lower price level.
    • The focus is on the price direction, rather than depth or aggression. It captures momentum in the market without necessarily considering the volume traded at each price point.
  • When to Use:

    • Best suited for more trend-following strategies or when you are trying to gauge overall market direction based on past price movements.
    • If you are interested in general market momentum or are analyzing larger timeframes (like intraday or swing trading), this can be useful for visualizing trends.
    • However, it can sometimes be less precise because it does not focus on the volume traded at the bid or ask prices but on the direction of price.

Conclusion:

  • Ask Traded vs Bid Traded is likely to be a better choice for precise and real-time market analysis, especially if you're interested in order flow, market sentiment, and immediate price movements. It gives you insight into buyer vs seller strength and how orders are flowing at different price levels, providing more actionable information for short-term strategies.

  • Up Tick vs Down Tick could be useful if you're looking to gauge overall market direction or trend strength in a more general way, particularly if you're focused on the broader momentum of the market over larger timeframes.

In summary, if your goal is detailed and actionable information regarding order flow and the balance of supply and demand, Ask Traded vs Bid Traded should provide you with superior insight for your strategy.

2024-12-21 Compare data feeds: RITHMIC versus CQG

When choosing between CQG and Rithmic for automated futures trading, particularly for strategies based on cumulative delta, the decision comes down to the following key considerations:


1. Data Quality and Granularity

  • Rithmic:

    • Highly regarded for its low-latency and tick-by-tick data.
    • Provides very accurate and detailed order book data, which is ideal for strategies that analyze cumulative delta.
    • Rithmic's infrastructure is known for high reliability and precise time stamps, which are critical for ensuring the accuracy of order flow calculations.
  • CQG:

    • CQG also provides high-quality market data but may not always match Rithmic's granularity for tick-by-tick feeds.
    • CQG's data compression techniques might slightly affect cumulative delta calculations, particularly for very short-term or high-frequency strategies.

Winner for Data Quality: Rithmic


2. Latency and Connectivity

  • Rithmic:

    • Well-known for low latency and direct connections to many exchanges.
    • Often preferred by high-frequency traders or those who need near-instantaneous market updates.
  • CQG:

    • Provides stable and fast data but isn't typically as low-latency as Rithmic.
    • Might be sufficient for most strategies, but for latency-sensitive applications, Rithmic has the edge.

Winner for Latency: Rithmic


3. Platform Compatibility

  • Rithmic:

    • Supported by a wide range of platforms commonly used for automated trading (NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart, etc.).
    • Provides APIs (like R|Trader Pro) for custom development.
  • CQG:

    • Also widely supported across many platforms and offers its CQG API for custom trading software.
    • Slightly more intuitive user interfaces for general traders, but less focused on advanced order flow analysis.

Tie: Both are compatible with most professional trading platforms.


4. Cost

  • Rithmic:

    • Costs for using Rithmic may be slightly higher, depending on your broker and trading platform fees.
  • CQG:

    • Pricing tends to be more competitive, making it attractive for traders with cost constraints.

Winner for Cost: CQG


5. Suitability for Cumulative Delta Strategies

  • Rithmic:

    • The most accurate for cumulative delta analysis due to its superior tick-by-tick data and precise handling of volume at each price level.
    • Offers detailed bid/ask-level information, which is essential for cumulative delta computations.
  • CQG:

    • Reliable but might introduce minor inaccuracies in cumulative delta strategies when compared with Rithmic, particularly during high market volatility.

Winner for Cumulative Delta: Rithmic


Final Recommendation:

For cumulative delta-based strategies, Rithmic is typically the better choice due to its:

  1. Superior tick-by-tick data.
  2. Lower latency.
  3. Higher reliability for volume profile and order flow calculations.

If cost is a significant factor or your strategy is less dependent on ultra-precise order flow data, CQG can be a solid alternative. However, if your strategy relies heavily on cumulative delta accuracy, go with Rithmic.

2024-12-03 Corn runs into backwardation

Watch out for CORN. Market runs into backwardation.

We expect higher prices!

2024-11-09 Bitcoin Volume Spikes

Volume spikes can signal potential trend reversals or the beginning of new trends, as large shifts in trading interest may mark shifts in market sentiment.

As we see clearly in the Bitcoin market. Here we can see the weekly chart: